Economische gevolgen uitbreiding: Duitsland profiteert, Spanje en Portugal verliezen (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Germany stands to gain as much as five billion euro a year from enlargement, whilst countries such as Spain and Portugal stand to lose out, according to a new report by investment bank Goldman Sachs.

In a recent economic analysis paper, the bank states, "countries closer to Central Europe geographically are likely to benefit most from the enlargement. Several studies show that Germany, Italy and Austria are the biggest winner in terms of trade and single market effects".

"Growth in these countries could be boosted by as much as 0.25 percent a year in the first few years after enlargement", continues the report.

This may seem like a small gain, but in Germany's case, it results in an increase in wealth of over five billion euro a year - roughly equivalent to the national wealth of Mongolia.

Double whammy

But the economic losers in the enlargement process are the countries furthest away from Eastern Europe, who are hit with a double loss.

First, they will receive fewer EU transfers, which will flow to poorer regions in the new member states instead.

Second, according to the report, these countries "tend to specialise in the production of low value added, low price items" and they will be forced to adjust their economies as competition from the new member states bites.

But the impact of enlargement on the 12 country euro zone will probably be less dramatic, predicts the report, saying, "since the combined GDP of the accession countries is only six percent of Euroland, the economic impact of enlargement will be modest - probably no more than 0.1 percent a year over the next five years".

Reasons to grow

The report identifies five main areas in which enlargement is expected to boost growth - "the smooth functioning of the single market; labour mobility; increased trade; official transfers; and FDI [foreign direct investment]".

However, the danger is that politics could stand in the way of the economic advantages.

The report concludes, "But politics stand in the way of reaping the full benefits. While most of the positive effect would come from the Single Market, labour mobility and trade integration, the Single Market is still poorly implemented throughout the EU, particularly in Italy and France and labour mobility has been delayed by up to seven years for domestic political reasons in all but two countries (the UK and Ireland)".