EU-voorzitter Ierland peilt politieke wil Chirac en Schröder (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Both the Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder are to discuss the Constitution with French President Jacques Chirac - the person who several EU diplomats say is most recalcitrant about the treaty blueprint.

The discussions represent a step up in last minute negotiations before a crucial meeting of EU leaders later this month.

Mr Schröder and Mr Chirac will meet next Tuesday (16 March) while Mr Ahern will meet the French President in Paris on 22 March to see if the recent signs of a possible breakthrough can be extended to France.

A Brussels diplomat told the EUobserver that Paris is the most difficult to read of the member states who are key to the progress on the Constitution negotiations - Poland, Germany, France, Spain and the UK.

At the December Summit in Brussels talks broke down over the new voting system - which essentially determines the balance of power in the EU - it was widely acknowledged that a deal could have been reached if Paris had really been in favour of it.

The issue for France is that the new voting system, which gives states power according to population, would mean that it is no longer on an even keel with Germany.

Under the current Nice Treaty, brokered over a marathon five days by Mr Chirac in 2000, France and Germany have the same amount of votes in the council of ministers where EU decisions are taken - in spite of Germany having 20 million more citizens.

Critical stage

However diplomats are encouraged by the fact that there appears to be signs of compromise in the air - particularly from Germany.

"The preparedness on the part of member states to discuss options is good", said an EU diplomat.

Publicly the Irish Presidency continues to be downbeat.

"If there is a serious possibility of progress, the Irish presidency will immediately move to seize it", said Irish minister for Europe Dick Roche to MEPs on Wednesday (10 March).

"We also have a greater understanding of where the scope for compromise and possible agreement might lie".

A spokesperson for the Irish Presidency said that there are no formal proposals on the voting system yet - although Germany, and today the European Commission, have mentioned specific voting proposals.

"We are not at the point of putting things on the table formally yet".

Difficult call

The next two weeks leading up to a meeting of EU leaders on 25-26 March are critical.

The outcome of the meeting between France and Germany will indicate whether a compromise can definitely be agreed.

Irish diplomats will also be keen to take up contact with their Spanish counterparts following the country's general election on Sunday.

If the Irish Presidency judges that member states have sufficient political will to make a go of the Constitution, they will recommend reconvening a meeting on it.

It is a tough call for Mr Ahern, a second failure on the Constitution would be politically very damaging for Europe.