Globally minded youngsters tip Danish referendum towards No

The Danes will be heading to the polling stations on Thursday (3 December) for their eigth EU referendum since a majority voted Yes to join the club back in 1972.

So far the referenda resulted in five yes's and two no's, with a narrow lead to the No side this time around.

A Gallup poll published on Saturday in the Berlingske Tidende daily showed 38 percent intend to vote No, while only 34 percent Yes and 23 percent undecided.

Maastricht Treaty

We need to go back to the Maastricht treaty referendum over 20 years ago to find the reason for this week's plebiscite.

The treaty was first rejected by the Danes in 1992.

In order to save the entire treaty, Denmark was offered at a summit in Edinburgh a handful of treaty-based opt-outs, preserving Danish sovereignty over EU-policy areas, such as the euro, defence and justice and home affairs rules.

The Maastricht treaty was then approved together with the opt-outs by the Danes in re-run of the vote in 1993.

European Union legislation in the area of justice and home affairs has ballooned over 20 years that followed.

It includes today important policy areas such as cybercrime, trafficking, data protection, Schengen, refugee and asylum policies and closer Europol co-operation to prevent terror.

Bound by the old treaty-opt-out Denmark automatically stays out of all the supra-national EU justice and home affairs policies and doesn’t take part in EU Council votes in these areas.

A frustrated majority in the Danish parliament, nick-named 'Borgen' (The Castle), took the chance to get rid of their chains and voted in August to call for a referendum asking citizens to scrap the old op-out.

They wanted permission from the voters to opt-in to the various justice and home affairs policies over time, without having to consult the people again in a referendum.

Crumbled Yes-majority

The Yes parties identified 22 existing EU initiatives they want Denmark to join right after a Yes vote. They also promised Denmark won’t take part in ten other EU initiatives - including the hot-button issue of asylum and immigration.

The day after the referendum was announced, Gallup polled a safe majority of 58 percent would vote Yes.

But something happened during the campaign.

First of all, the refugee-crisis exploded like an unexpected grenade in the the yes camp.

Liberal Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen was quick to promise that there will be a new referendum held before Denmark eventually joins EU refugee and asylum policies over time.

"So, why are we scrapping the opt-out, if we don't want to join the policies anyway?" confused voters were wondering.

Then more terror attacks hit Paris in November and appeared to underpin the Yes-campaign's main argument, that Denmark must scrap the opt-outs to be able to co-operate fully with Europol.

"Help the Police, Vote Yes", was chosen as the leading campaign slogan by the Social Democrats, printed on posters and hung in the lampposts all around the country.

The governing Liberal party created a poster with a blond police-woman and carrying almost an identical message: "Strengthen Denmark's police - vote Yes".

But how likely is it that Europol will not co-operate with Denmark after a No, when non-EU states like Norway and Switzerland are doing it? Voters have found it hard to believe threats of getting kicked out of Europol.

The undecided

Less than a week before the referendum, as many as 48 percent told Gallup that they do not think they know enough and that the politicians have not explained the issues well enough. As many as 23 percent are still undecided.

"I see myself as a world citizen and I don't like the ring-fencing of Europe. But should I then vote yes or no? I can't quite figure it out", one voter, Hanne Herlin told EUobserver.

"I'll vote as the MP I trust the most, since I don't know myself," reveals Anders Hesselvig.

He is a young man supporting the Liberal Alliance, a new business-oriented party, recommending a No vote.

The leftist Red-Green alliance is also campaigning on the No side, saying Denmark must have full sovereignty on divorce, child custody, and criminal sentencing, among other topics.

Both parties trend among the younger global minded generations, and it looks likely that they might tip the balance towards a No on Thursday.

According to the Gallup poll, among Danes aged 18-35, 41% plan to vote No while only 23% plan to vote yes. In contrast, among Danes aged 60 and over, 47% plan to vote Yes while 34% plan to vote No.

The Danish Peoples Party' contribute their share of the no-voters, being traditionally EU-sceptic and hostile to migrants. The party has the most loyal voters among all parties, with 72 percent following the party line.

Its European Parliament candidate in 2014, Morten Messerschmidt, won an unprecedented 465,758 personal votes in a country of just 5.6 million people.

But his expected prominent role in the No campaign was somewhat destroyed when the European Parliament in November ordered him to return €16,000 to the European Parliament that he spent on renting a boat for a political summer cruise around Denmark.

“I will ask the EU Parliament’s bureau to immediately go through all the campaigns and adverts of other European parties,” he commented, but so far has refused to publish the full accounts for his own spendings.

Brexit battle

By choosing to have the Danish poll on 3 December, the PM, Loekke Rasmussen, has avoided getting his campaign mixed up with the UK’s referendum on EU membership.

With a few exceptions, Brussels authorities have also refrained from getting involved in the Danish debate.

But a lost Danish EU referendum on Thursday risks getting mixed into the British battle.

"In the UK, we will be very interested in the debate and the outcome", UKIP leader Nigel Farage told Politiken.

An EU summit already on 17-18 December is set to discuss in greater details the UK prime minister, David Cameron's demands for EU reforms in the run-up to the British vote, due at the latest in 2017.