New Polish government: Hawks, doves, and bankers

The new Polish government will contain hawkish foreign and defence ministers, but EU relations will be handled by a mild-mannered former MEP, and the economy will be steered by an investor-friendly banker.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the head of the Law and Justice party, which won elections last month, and his PM-to-be, Beata Szydlo i, unveiled the new cabinet at a press conference in Warsaw on Monday (9 November).

They named Witold Waszczykowski as foreign minister and Antoni Macierewicz as defence chief.

The nominations indicate Warsaw will take a hard line on renewing Russia sanctions in January and push for Nato bases in eastern Europe at next year’s Nato summit, to be held in the Polish capital.

Waszczykowski, Poland’s former ambassador to Iran, who also negotiated Poland’s part in the US missile-defence shield, is a staunch Atlanticist. He advocates a robust US and Nato posture on Russia, more in tune with the Republican Party of senator John McCain than with Barack Obama’s White House.

Macierewicz is a former anti-Communist activist and counter-intelligence chief.

He believes Russia orchestrated the Smolensk disaster in 2010, when leading members of Poland’s right-wing establishment died in a plane crash.

In remarks to press following his nomination, Waszczykowski said Poland has bad relations with Russia because it invaded Georgia and Ukraine.

He also urged Moscow to say why it never handed over the Smolensk plane wreck.

Doves?

Security issues aside, the refugee crisis, global warming, and the economy are likely to feature on Poland’s EU agenda.

Kaczynski, in the election campaign, used xenophobic rhetoric on migrant “ "parasites.”

He and Szydlo nominated Mariusz Blaszcak, a softly-spoken former historian, to handle the EU relocation scheme as minister of home affairs.

Blaszcak, in remarks to press on Monday, made a faux pas by saying Europe has agreed to accept 160,000 “Muslims”, referring to Middle East refugees, some of whom are Christian or secular.

But he is far less abrasive than Zbigniew Ziobro, the new minister of justice, who is also known as “Poland’s Orban”, by reference to Hungary’s right-wing leader.

Meanwhile, Warsaw's day-to-day relations with EU institutions, including next year’s talks on how to share the burden of CO2 emissions cuts, will be handled by the dove-ish Konrad Szymanski.

The new EU affairs minister, in his 10 years as an MEP in Brussels, earned a reputation as a mild-mannered pragmatist, whose views on Europe are similar to the mainstream part of the British Conservative Party.

On the finance front, Kaczynski and Szydlo promised voters to lower the retirement age and boost welfare.

It remains to be seen if they deliver.

Bankers

But their new economy minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, and finance minister, Pawel Szalamacha, were put in place to reassure markets.

Morawiecki, who is to co-ordinate all financial ministries, over and above Szalamacha, studied in Frankfurt and is chairman of a respected private-sector bank - Bank Zachodni WBK.

Szalamacha is an alumnus of the College of Europe in Bruges, a school best known for training future EU officials, and a former lawyer with London-based firm Clifford Chance.

Kaczynski told press on Monday the Morawiecki co-ordinating role is “designed to ensure more [foreign] investment in Poland.”

He noted, on Szydlo herself, that he “doesn’t need to jutsify” his choice of the coal miner’s daughter and career politician to lead the government.

But his comments did little to dispel speculation, among Polish pundits, that the Russia-hostile and euro-prickly Kaczynski will himself pull the strings in Warsaw.

Debuts

The new government must present its programme and pass a confidence motion before assuming office.

The procedure will wrap up shortly after the Polish parliament meets on Thursday.

The Thursday date means outgoing PM Ewa Kopacz will miss the EU summit on migration in Valletta.

But it means Waszczykowski is likely to make his debut at an EU foreign ministers’ meeting on 16 November, while Macierewicz will meet fellow EU defence chiefs the next day.