Belarus opposition seeks EU help for round-table talks

Five Belarusian opposition leaders have appealed for EU help to restart internal talks on democratic reform.

They said, in an open letter to the heads of the EU institutions on Friday (30 October), the bloc should use its leverage on Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko to restart round-table talks, which were mothballed in 1999.

They said the “negotiation process”, which should include mediators from the OSCE, the Vienna-based rights watchdog, and from EU bodies, could “broaden the area of freedom” for reformists.

They also urged the EU to push for better standards in Belarus parliamentary elections next year, for instance, by getting Lukashenko to allow opposition delegates to sit on electoral commissions and by securing an “open and transparent vote count”.

The letter came after the EU, also on Friday, suspended, for four months, its visa ban and asset freeze on Lukashenko’s nomenklatura.

The EU did it because, earlier this year, he freed the last of his political prisoners and because there was no violent crackdown after last month’s presidential vote.

But the five opposition chiefs - Sergei Kalyakin, Anatoly Liabedzka, Vladimir Neklayev, Pavel Severinets, and Nikolai Statkevich - said the EU re-engagment causes “concerns” because it isn’t conditional on strengthening civil society.

They said Lukashenko’s line - that Belarus needs him to guarantee its sovereignty in the context of Russian revanchism - is just a “tool to keep power”.

They noted that if he restarts the 1999 process and enacts electoral reform, the EU should reward him by “abolishing” the visa bans.

They also noted he needs Western money more than ever because the Belarusian economy is in a state of “crisis” amid a “considerable reduction” in Russian subsidies.

Two other opposition leaders - Alexander Milinkevich and Tatsiana Karatkevich - didn’t sign the letter.

Milinkevich is, reportedly, to leave politics.

'Constructive opposition'

Karatkevich - the only reformist allowed to run against Lukashenko in October presidential's vote - didn’t do it because she has a different programme.

She told EUobserver i in a recent interview that her model of “constructive opposition” aims to improve ordinary people’s lives, for instance, by electoral and police reform, instead of pushing for democratic transition.

She said she aims to appeal to a new reformist constituency - family people in the 25 to 55 age range - who never before took an interest in politics and who have no faith in anti-Lukashenko street rallies.

“We [the opposition] have to adapt to this mood in society, to learn from our mistakes, and to come up a with a new, more positive strategy”, she said.

Her top aide, Andrei Dmitriev, added: “Now isn’t the time to call for mass protests … People are tired of fighting [the regime] with no result, so we’re trying to find another way”.

Some Belarusian campaigners don't believe in either model.

"Lukashenko will never agree to anything that will eliminate him", one contact, who asked not to be named, told this website.

"The EU cannot knock on his door, hand him a gun and say: 'Here, Mr. President, please be so kind as to shoot yourself in the name of democracy'. Free elections will take place in Belarus only after or without Lukashenko".

Buffer or partner?

But for his part, Petras Austrevicius i, a liberal MEP from Lithuania who works closely with Belarus dissidents, endorsed the round-table idea.

“These brave and dedicated people, real patriots of their country, are now vocal about the future of Belarus and we must listen to their voice. Otherwise, this [EU] policy of 're-engagement' is going to be built on wrong, or fake, foundations”, he told this website.

Echoing the letter's concern - that the EU is willing to prop up Lukashenko to help contain Russia - he added: “Throughout history, we know how ‘buffer states’ end - by being invaded, occupied, divided, or annexed”.

"To me, Belarus is an eastern partner of the EU - a very complicated one, with a lot of conditions and shortcomings, but still a partner".