EU undecided on Russia sanctions ahead of Crimea vote

BRUSSELS - Ukraine’s ambassador to the EU has appealed for European unity ahead of Sunday’s (16 March) “referendum” in Crimea.

Kostyantin Yeliseyev told EUobserver on Friday that the only hope for a diplomatic solution to the crisis is if all 28 EU countries join together in putting pressure on Moscow to hold talks with Kiev.

“Russia is continuing to escalate the situation because there is not 100 percent unity in the EU. The European Union has real leverage on Russia, but some member states are hesitating to take action,” he said.

“My dear friends: It is high time to stop thinking of your trade and energy interests and to stand up for European values. What we are talking about here is no less than the peace and stability of Europe - today it is Ukraine, but tomorrow it could be somewhere else. Without peace, there can be no economic prosperity or development.”

Yeliseyev spoke amid ongoing EU talks on targeted sanctions against Russia.

Member states have agreed to impose visa bans and asset freezes on Russians deemed guilty of violating Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but cannot agree on who to designate or when to impose the measures.

Diplomatic contacts say the draft EU blacklist contains some 100 names, comprising a mixed bag of Kremlin officials, politicians, military chiefs, and oligarchs.

The majority of EU countries - including France, Germany, and the UK - want to impose a long list at an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Monday.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel i said on Friday that even if Russia retaliates with counter-sanctions, her country can absorb the pain. “There is a [Germany-Russia trade] dimension there, but not to such an extent that it would have an impact on Germany’s entire economic engagement,” she noted.

But Cyprus, Greece, Portugal, and Spain want to blacklist fewer people and to take any decision in light of Sunday’s events.

“Some countries want to go very far at this stage, and others to give more room to diplomacy as much as we can. If we go too far, we won’t have anybody to talk to because Russia can close all its doors,” a Spanish diplomat said.

“Let’s wait until Sunday and see what the reaction is after that,” she added.

What Russia and pro-Russian politicians in Crimea are describing as the “referendum” will ask the region’s 2 million people if they want to split from Ukraine and join Russia or split from Ukraine and become semi-autonomous.

About 60 percent of Crimeans are ethnic Russians, some of whom might vote Yes on option one in a free and a fair poll.

But the vote is being held in violation of the Ukrainian constitution.

It is also being held with no international observers, amid a blackout on independent media, and in a climate of fear.

Russian soldiers and pro-Russian paramilitaries have taken control of most Crimean cities, transport centres, and public buildings over the past three weeks. Masked men, believed by Ukrainian authorities to be from organised crime groups in Chechnya, have also kidnapped several journalists and pro-Ukrainian activists.

Meanwhile, Russian forces have massed on Ukraine’s wider eastern borders threatening a mass-scale invasion.

Some Ukrainian soldiers, who are under siege in their bases in Crimea, on Friday threatened to use force. Crimean Tatars, a minority group, have also vowed armed resistance against becoming part of Russia.

For his part, Yeliseyev said Sunday’s result is a foregone conclusion.

“At this stage, they are just wondering which numbers to publish, should it be 75 percent [of people who want to join Russia] or 85 percent? Let’s be under no illusion how this works,” he said.

A senior EU diplomat told this website there are two principal scenarios.

The first is that Russia along with some exotic countries, such as Nauru or Rwanda, recognises the result of the referendum, but then de-escalates by agreeing to bilateral or multilateral talks with Ukraine on the future of Crimea.

The second scenario is a “war scenario.”

“What we could see is an even larger provocation of Ukrainian armed forces by Russian incursions across Ukraine’s eastern border. It’s very difficult to say how this will play out,” the EU diplomat added.

“We are not using armed resistance because this is precisely the goal of the Russian authorities - to provoke a confrontation, just as they did in Georgia in 2008,” Ukraine’s Yeliseyev added.

“But we are very concerned by the huge amount of Russian forces on our eastern borders and if Russia violates these borders, Ukraine will be forced to defend itself.”