EU geeft hoop op snelle overeenkomst met Oekraïne op (en)

BRUSSELS - EU diplomats have given up hope that Ukraine will sign an EU association and free trade treaty at the Vilnius summit later this month.

The rupture comes after Ukrainian authorities on Tuesday (12 November) charged Serhiy Vlasenko, the lawyer of jailed former PM Yulia Tymoshenko, with domestic violence in a case which could see him also jailed for three years.

The arraignment came 24 hours before a European Parliament mission is due on Wednesday in Brussels to give its final verdict on whether Ukraine has done enough to combat "selective justice."

It also comes one week before EU foreign ministers next Monday make a final decision on whether to sign the pact at an EU summit with former Soviet states in the Lithuanian capital on 27 November.

Speaking to EUobserver from Kiev on Wednesday morning, Vlasenko said: "They activated my case as another bright example of selective justice."

He added that they did it as a PR move to force the EU parliament envoys to give a negative verdict, helping Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to blame the Vilnius failure on the EU side.

"I have no doubt in my mind Yanukovych has decided not to sign the treaty … But this enables him to say: 'Look. I did all my homework. I adopted a lot of pro-EU laws, except in the cases of politically motivated cases. Now you should sign because of the Russian pressure on my country'."

An EU diplomat, who asked not to be named, gave the same opinion.

"We are sure the signature won't happen," he said.

"The Vlasenko case is designed to influence the EU parliament's report. In this way, they are trying to provoke the EU to fire the first shot in the blame game of who is guilty for the non-signature."

He added that Yanukovych will probably come to Vilnius to sign some minor agreements, such as a common aviation space with the EU, allowing cheap flights between European and Ukrainian cities, in order to keep EU relations ticking over.

He noted that Yanukovych is unlikely to join Russia's Customs Union either.

With the status quo enabling the President's clan to stay in control of Ukrainian business and to retain power in upcoming presidential elections without interference from Brussels or Moscow, the EU diplomat added: "They want to keep both Russia and the EU at arm's length for as long as possible."

The Vlasenko case comes as no surprise to EU negotiators.

The Ukrainian parliament is due to hold an extraordinary session at 10.00am Kiev time on Wednesday to decide whether or not to let Tymoshenko go to Germany for medical treatment.

But relevant committees have not even drafted the bill which might enable a positive outcome.

Vlasenko noted that Ukrainian prosecutors are at the same time preparing material to prosecute the ex-PM in fresh cases on alleged embezzlement and on alleged involvement in a 1990s contract killing.

Vlasenko spoke to this website after being released on bail. But he said his bail conditions are so severe he could end up in pre-trial detention at any moment.

He is charged with hitting his ex-wife, Natalya Okunska, in the face five times when she she visited his apartment one evening in 2008, causing severe bruises.

He denies having ever hit her.

He said a number of witnesses saw her leaving his home on the evening in question with no marks on her face and with no signs of distress.

"The administration is controlling all of her statements. She has access to the main TV channels and to all the top people in government," he noted.

He said that when he was summoned to the prosecutor's office on Tuesday evening, Okunska appeared on the scene, surrounded by TV cameras, in an attempt to "provoke" him to make a show of anger.

He also noted the former model is now running for parliament in one of the disputed seats related to flawed parliamentary elections in October last year.

Vlasenko said there is "a one percent chance" that his case is an attempt by Ukraine to extract last-minute concessions from the EU, for instance, on trade tariffs.

He added it would be "a miracle" if the parliament found a way to free Tymoshenko at Wednesday's session.

The EU diplomat used the same vocabulary.

"It would be a miracle if parliament adopted the law, as well as two other ones important for the EU: on the independence of the prosecutor's office and on electoral reforms," he said.

The diplomat noted that a number of senior EU figures - such as Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite i and Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski - have "changed their rhetoric" on Ukraine in recent days.

The previous EU message was that if Ukraine does not sign the treaty in Vilnius it would lapse, once and for all, into Russia's sphere of influence.

But the latest statements say it would not be a disaster if the EU treaty is signed later down the line.