NAVO: 'Russische leger niet opgewassen tegen tweefrontenoorlog' (en)
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Russia could fight one small war in the west but not one in the east or two at the same time, a secret Nato analysis of the Kremlin's military capacity says.
"Nato ... concluded that Russian armed forces were: able to respond to a small to mid-sized local and regional conflict in its western region; not able to respond to two small conflicts in different geographical areas simultaneously; not able to conduct large scale conventional operations," the 2009 dispatch, from the US mission to Nato, explains.
On a warning note, it adds: "[Russia is] still relying on the use of tactical nuclear weapons, even in local or regional conflicts."
The memo from the US delegation to Nato in Brussels was written shortly after mass-scale Russian war games in the Baltic region spooked Nato members, and about 18 months after Russia attacked Georgia. News reports from the Georgia war recall that jealous Russian soldiers stole Nato-paid boots and toilets from Georgian barracks to take home.
The US cable, leaked by Norwegian daily Aftenposten on Monday (14 February), says that Russia has "aging and obsolete equipment" and "a manpower shortage."
At the time, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania complained in an internal paper that Nato should have spoken out against the "disturbing" event. Italy said they should not "over-dramatise" things and Germany put forward a legal analysis saying the Russian games did not break any treaty. The US sat on the fence.
The analysis comes out in the run-up to Russian presidential elections next year and stands in contrast to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin i's public assessment of his nation's readiness.
More gravely, it comes in the context of a renewed conflict with Islamists in Russia's war-torn Chechnya province.
In strategic terms, it indicates the growing military threat to Russia's vast Asian lands from China. According to the Stockholm International Peace Institute, Russia in 2009 spent € 45 billion on its military, while China spent € 73 billion. The US spent € 489 billion and at least another € 80 billion on intelligence.
Two leading US scholars in 2006 published a report in Foreign Affairs saying that Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal is so old that the US could easily destroy it with a modern first strike.
Former Soviet republics, such as Lithuania are more worried about Russia's tactical nuclear arsenal however, including such items as "nuclear landmines" - devices the size of a large backpack that can be carried by paratroopers behind enemy lines and which can devastate infrastructure or render whole valleys impassable.