Internationaal Gerechtshof: afsplitsing Kosovo is legaal (en)
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - By a 10-4 majority, the International Court of Justice on Thursday (22 July) ruled that the unilateral declaration of independence by the then-Serbian province of Kosovo did not violate international law.
In something of a fudge that will leave no one happy, the non-binding ruling found that as there are no provisions in international law restricting independence declarations, such as that pronounced by Kosovo on 17 February, 2008, the new state is neither abiding by international law nor in violation.
While the US and most Western countries immediately recognised Kosovar independence, the issue has split the European Union, with a vocal minority of countries with their own problems of internal demands for self-determination sharply refusing to recognise the move.
Spain, Cyprus, Slovakia, Greece and Romania continue to hold up EU i-wide recognition, joining Serbia, its traditional ally, Russia, and most of Africa, Asia and Latin America.
The court's finding is likely to encourage more states to welcome Kosovo into the international community of independent states, but it is also likely to embolden separatist movements in other regions of the world.
However, analysts reckon that recognition of states has less to do with international law than realpolitik, and the key is not winning court cases, but winning a majority of the right kind of other important states onside.
"Lots of pints will be drunk in Catalan, Basque and Quebecois bars tonight," Richard Gowan, an analyst with the European Council on Foreign Affairs, "but alongside the hangover they wake up with, they will wake up with the realisation that not much has changed."
"How many countries have indicated that tomorrow they would recognise an independent Basque Country or Catalonia?" he said. "It's just about zero."
"Whether a region establishes itself on the international stage is fundamentally a political rather than a legal issue at root."
He noted that Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the breakaway regions that declared independence from Georgia in 2009, have only been recognised by Russia, Nicaragua and Nauru. "And in the case of Taiwan, the number of countries that recognise it have dropped year after year as they recognise the hegemony of Beijing."
"The key for Kosovo was that countries had indicated before the fact that they would recognise them. Ten years ago when they first tried it, no one was with them."
"Of course, had it gone the other way, it would have been a real victory for the Serbs," he continued, adding however that the decision may actually come as something of a relief for Belgrade.
"It's a tough moment for the Serbs, but there are those who would be quite happy for some way out of the impasse. They cannot say so publicly, but they see that the current situation creates problems for them with the EU and with the US."
"Quite a few would actually be quite happy to see Kosovo go. There is little love lost between Belgrade and the radical Serbs of northern Kosovo, who have long thought Belgrade too soft."
"In the long term, it's something of a relief."