Nederlanders kiezen waarschijnlijk voor Eurosceptische VVD (en)
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Dutch voters are expected to vote in their first 'liberal' leader since World War I in elections on Wednesday (9 Jun): Mark Rutte i, the eurosceptic-lite chief of the VVD party, who looks set to turn the Netherlands from one of the EU's biggest supporters into a UK-style fan of opt-outs and a foe of further integration.
According to last-minute polls from Synovate, the VVD, a pro-business liberal party that in other countries would normally take the name "conservative," was leading on 33 seats against the party's main contender, the Labour party, on 30. Another survey, from pollster Maurice De Hond, from Tuesday put the VVD on 34 seats to Labour's 30.
Labour may be down three seats from the 33 it went into the election with, but the party's previously fast-falling support saw something of a surge after the election of the popular and charismatic mayor of Amsterdam, Job Cohen i, as leader.
In both polls, the centre-right Christian Democrats of Prime Minister Jan-Peter Balkanende i were on track for 24, seats down from 41.
While Europe has hardly figured at all in the election discourse, Mr Rutte has said he wishes to limit the EU to its "core competences" and to eliminate all funding to underdeveloped regions. He wants to slash the Netherlands' contribution to the EU by a billion euros.
Indeed, there is a growing euroscepticism across the board in one of Europe's founder nations, with all parties from right to left, bar the Green Left and the social liberals of D66, voicing criticism of the bloc.
One of the surprises of the election has been the turn-around in fortunes of anti-immigrant populist Geert Wilders i and his Freedom Party (PVV). Earlier this year tipped as possible winner of the vote, he wants to "stop the Islamicisation of the Netherlands," impose a tax on headscarves and deport Muslims from Europe.
In March local elections, the PVV did exceptionally well in Almere and the Hague, with the country's main pollster predicting the party would beat both Labour and the Christian Democrats on 27 seats to their 24 a piece.
But in the space of a few weeks, the PVV's support has slumped to fourth place as a result of battles over the lack of internal democracy - Mr Wilders is the only member of his party and all decisions are made by him - and the effective refusal of the party to enter local government in the towns where it did well.
In the 2009 European elections Mr Wilders won 17 percent of the vote and four of the country's 25 euro-deputy seats.
The PVV is nevertheless expected to double its seat count from nine to 18 on Wednesday.
Instead of focussing on immigration, or even the war in Afghanistan - the issue that broke apart the Labour-Christian-Democrat coalition earlier this year resulting in premature elections - the Dutch election discourse has focussed primarily on the state of the economy.
Mr Rutte's VVD, the former party of Mr Wilders, has campaigned on a platform of slashing public spending by €45 billion over the next four years and by €20 billion a year from 2015.
The party also wants to lower income taxes, cap civil service pay rises and increase the retirement age from 65 to 67.
He hopes to cobble together a coalition by 1 July, but such a move will be difficult to achieve. His natural allies, the Christian Democrats, do not bring enough votes with them to form the 76-seat majority needed in the 150-seat chamber.
He may have to rely on the support of the Freedom Party, which opposes raising the retirement age.
But much is yet to be played for, as a full 20 percent of voters remain undecided.
Polls also suggest that the far left is rising, with the Socialist Party good for 13 to 15 seats and the results for D66 and the Green Left could yet surprise.