Commissie en IMF gematigd positief over financiële sector in Roemenië (en)

A mission from the European Commission, the IMF and the World Bank has held discussions with the Romanian authorities regarding implementation of the policy programme under the € 20 billion multilateral support package. The second tranche from the European Union balance of payments assistance programme amounts to €1 bn and will be disbursed following completion of the programme review and if the conditions are met.

Recent economic developments have been encouraging. High frequency indicators suggest that real GDP may stabilize in the second half of the year, bringing GDP for the year as a whole to around -8%, as indicated in this week's Commission autumn forecasts. This is slightly better than expected in August. Positive growth of ½ percent is projected for 2010, with risks tilted on the upside. Financial tensions have eased significantly since the beginning of the programme, and the balance of payment situation has improved.

The authorities' performance under the programme has been satisfactory. Legislation unifying public compensation systems has been adopted. A draft fiscal responsibility law has been prepared by the government, which, if adopted, will imply a significant strengthening of Romania's fiscal policy framework and preparation of the pension reform law is also progressing well, in line with programme conditionality. Significant reforms have also been made in the financial sector, including the strengthening of the regulatory framework for banks and the deposit insurance scheme. Other reforms to improve the functioning of the labour market, the business environment and absorption of EU funds are progressing well.

Notwithstanding this overall good performance, the current political environment is hindering further fiscal consolidation that remains necessary. The current interim government cannot legally submit a 2010 budget to Parliament or take strong commitments on measures to bring the 2010 deficit down to 5.9% of GDP, in line with programme targets.

Under these circumstances, discussions will continue in the coming weeks and another mission will return to Bucharest as soon as the political situation has been clarified to successfully complete the review under the programme. A broad political consensus and renewed commitment to reforms are crucial to overcome current difficulties. The Commission fully supports the authorities in their endeavours to address current challenges.

On the Commission side, the mission was led by Elena Flores Gual, Director at the Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate (Ecfin) and Fabienne Ilzkovitz, Head of Unit at Ecfin for a group of countries that comprises Romania.