Europarlement blijft verdeeld over herbenoeming Barroso (en)
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - One week after EU leaders proposed to make Jose Manuel Barroso i European Commission chief for a second time, it is no clearer whether the Portuguese politician is likely to get a majority if put to a vote mid July.
Consultations due to take place Thursday (25 July) between the incoming Swedish EU presidency and leaders of the political groups in the parliament have been postponed until 6 July in the hope to get a clearer picture of how each group stands on the matter.
A spokesperson for the Swedish presidency said that Stockholm had made the move to "show some flexibility."
"The ambience coming from the parliament showed that this was perhaps a good idea," he said, adding that Sweden is hoping the extra time will help opinions on the Barroso candidacy crystallise.
But the political sands in the parliament continue to shift as the groups weigh up where to place their allegiances and where they are prepared to make concessions.
The debate surrounds whether to hold a vote on Mr Barroso in mid- July – the Socialists and Greens say this is too soon and does not allow for a thorough examination of Mr Barroso's plans for the next five years – and whether he will get a majority if it does go to vote.
At the moment, there is something of a political stalemate between member states on the one side and a divided parliament on the other.
"The council does not want to formally nominate Barroso as a candidate until it is sure it will get a majority in the parliament and the parliament does not want to move until Barroso is confirmed as the candidate," noted one parliament official.
On 19 June, EU leaders gave political backing to Mr Barroso which they hoped to turn into legal backing after consultations with the parliament.
The centre-right Mr Barroso has the backing of his political family in the parliament, the European People's Party (EPP). It wants a July vote. But although it is the biggest group in the assembly, it cannot swing the issue alone.
It is hoping to force the Socialists' hand by linking the issue to the presidency of the parliament - a job normally stitched up by way of a technical agreement between the Socialists and the centre-right EPP who divide the five-year post between them.
Centre-right links top jobs
EPP chief Joseph Daul i on Wednesday (24 June) indicated it would be difficult to form a technological alliance with the Socialists if they did not throw their weight behind a July vote.
The Socialists, the second biggest group, have rejected this link out of hand and say the two posts are "entirely different issues." They also say they will stick to their "principled" stand that there cannot be a vote in July because there will not have been enough time to thoroughly discuss Mr Barroso's programme for the next five years.
"This parliament cannot be treated as some giant rubberstamp," said one official from the group.
But the Liberals have spiced things up by offering to come down in favour of a July vote, in return for certain concessions. These would include promising Graham Watson i, the current leader of the group, the presidency of the assembly in 2012.
"Unlike the Socialists and the Greens, [the liberal group] is not resolutely opposed to a vote in July. [It] would wish to see a number of conditions fulfilled before such a vote could be taken," says a statement by Mr Watson issued on Wednesday, after a meeting of liberal delegation leaders.
A right-wing alliance of the EPP (with 264 members) the Liberals (82) and the new European Conservatives and Reformists group (55) could give Mr Barroso an absolutely majority backing in the 736-strong EU assembly.
The liberal stance will likely remain fluid however until it elects its new group leader on 30 June, set to be ex-Belgian premier Guy Verhofstadt i.
Mr Verhofstadt has spoken out in favour of postponing the vote until September, but sources say he may be persuaded to back a July vote if Mr Barroso delivers some promises on financial reform proposals.
Tight timetable
For the Swedes, hoping for a clear working partner in the commission from mid-July rather than continuing uncertainty until autumn, the next weeks will represent a tight timetable of fine negotiating.
They will meet political leaders on 6 July to sound out their positions. Three days later, the political leaders will vote whether to put the Barroso candidacy to vote in the mid-July parliamentary session. The votes will be weighted according to the size of the group.
Once the parliament‘s position is clearer, member states will have to legally nominate the Portuguese politician, who will then meet with all the political groups to try and secure their support.
Mr Barroso needs a simple majority of those present to get re-elected but a narrow win would lessen his political authority from day one.