Zakelijk conflict bedreigt Europese energiezekerheid (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Swiss-based trading firm RosUkrEnergo is in the coming week aiming to lodge a hefty legal claim against Ukraine's Naftogaz, in what could start a domino effect ending in fresh interruptions to EU supplies.

RosUkrEnergo shareholders say Naftogaz has illegally seized 11 billion cubic metres of its gas, which was being held in Naftogaz storage tanks. Ukraine customs has already rubber-stamped the change in ownership of 6.3 billion cubic metres.

Naftogaz took the disputed volume in lieu of a €1.7 billion RosUkrEnergo debt, which it bought as a financial instrument. Eleven billion cubic metres of gas is worth around €3 billion at today's market prices.

Ukrainian businessman Dmitry Firtash, who controls 50 percent of RosUkrEnergo, is preparing to file the complaint at the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce before 24 March. Russia's Gazprom, which owns the other 50% of RosUkrEnergo, must agree for the claim to go ahead.

"It's theft," Robert Shetlar-Jones, the CEO of Mr Firtash's holding company, Group DF, told EUobserver.

"As a private Swiss company faced with having assets expropriated by a Ukrainian government-owned company, it undermines faith in the Ukrainian government. It undermines faith in the Ukrainian government as an energy partner for Europe."

The dispute has already impacted EU energy supplies. RosUkrEnergo customers in Poland, Hungary and Romania are still receiving less gas than expected despite the end of the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis in January.

Lawyers expect RosUkrEnergo and Naftogaz to settle in a few months' time. But if Naftogaz agrees to pay hundreds of millions of euro in damages, the cash-poor company could find it hard to make its monthly payments to Gazprom.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin i on 5 March warned that if Naftogaz defaults, Gazprom will stop supplies to EU transit state Ukraine, threatening a repeat of the January catastrophe, which saw 18 EU states cut off.

If the Firtash-Gazprom claim goes ahead, it could also damage the political entente between Mr Putin and Ukraine Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which underpins the pair's agreement in Moscow on 19 January to restart Europe's gas supply.

Rocking the boat

Meanwhile, the RosUkrEnergo case is aggravating Ukraine political instability at a time when the country is fighting the risk of sovereign default and preparing for a major EU donors conference on 23 March on renovating energy infrastructure.

Two weeks ago, secret police loyal to President Viktor Yushchenko raided Naftogaz to prove that Ukraine customs illegally transferred ownership of the 11 billion cubic metres. EU officials are hearing rumours that Ms Tymoshenko might be arrested in connection with the affair.

Opinion polls show that pre-Orange Revolution prime minister Viktor Yanukovych has a narrow lead ahead of upcoming presidential elections. Ms Tymoshenko is losing popularity, especially in Western Ukraine, where she is perceived as being too Putin-friendly. Mr Yushchenko has just 2 percent to 5 percent approval.

But with 30 percent to 40 percent of people saying they "don't know" or are "against all" the candidates, Internews-Ukraine analyst Volodymyr Yermolenko says all bets are off on who will take power over the next year.

"Ukraine has a democratic future. What is in danger is not so much formal democracy, but the rule of law and independence of the judiciary," he said.