Onderzoek: EU geconfronteerd met onzekerheid over toelevering Russische olie en gas (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Europe faces uncertainty over future energy supplies from Russia, with Russian oil and gas reserves likely to run out if Moscow does not invest more in the sector and boost energy efficiency at home, a fresh study has warned.

A report by the Berlin-based German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) released on Tuesday (4 December) questions Moscow's ability to keep up with growing world demand for oil and gas.

Existing reserves in both gas and oil will run out within decades if the current pace of production is maintained, the German researchers write. "Although Russia is the second biggest oil producer, it takes only seventh place as regards known reserves. At the current level of production, the reserves will have been used up in around 22 years."

A "similar" but less acute situation exists in the gas sector, where reserves will last for no more than 75 years, according to the study.

Gas exports have already been growing more slowly than projected in the Kremlin's own energy strategy, the DIW writes.

"The fact that Russian gas exports expand more slowly than foreseen in the energy strategy has no effects on energy supplies to Europe in the short and medium term. But in the long term, shortages could arise, also because Europe will compete with other potential consumers such as China."

According to the DIW, Russia's looming supply problems are primarily caused by its failure to invest in the energy sector, with foreign investors hindered by "insufficient (energy-) political conditions."

Foreign investment in oil and gas facilities shows a downward rather than upward trend, the study says.

Meanwhile, Moscow is also failing to cut down on domestic energy demand caused by "heavily subsidised" low energy prices.

The report comes at a time when the EU is trying to diversify its energy supplies away from Russia, engaging in the high-profile pipeline Nabucco pipeline project to extract gas from Central Asian states instead.

Europe's energy dependence on Moscow was highlighted in early 2005 when it faced sudden supply cuts caused by interruptions of gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine.

But EU states and companies continue to make deals with Russia at the same time, with Dutch firm Gasunie last month clinching a deal with Russian state-owned Gazprom on participation in the planned Nordstream gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.

The EU imports 29 percent of its oil and one third of its gas from Russia, according to the German institute.