Machtsverhoudingen in EU: Frankrijk krijgt meer gewicht dan Duitsland (en)
France may in the future overtake Germany to become the most economically powerful of the EU member states reaping the benefits of its current baby boom, according to a German study.
Recently scooping the fertility crown in Europe with French women having an average of two children each, France is on course to overtake Germany both in the population stakes and on an economic scale. According to a study for German daily Die Welt by the economic institute (IW) in Cologne, on current trends, France could have the biggest economy in Europe by 2035 and the biggest population ten years later.
Axel Pluennecke, an expert from the institute, reckons the shift in economic power will become most apparent between 2025 and 2035 as the so-called baby boomer generation goes into retirement and fewer people replace them. "The resulting deficiency in the workforce will work as a brake on growth," says Mr Pluennecke. "[At that time] the French economy will grow at least twice as fast as the German one," he adds.
France currently has a population of around 63 million with three quarters of its population growth coming from births and the rest from immigration. The country also has family friendly policies - such as readily available and not too expensive childcare facilities - that make it easy for French women to have children and work, rather than making a choice between the two.
Germany, by contrast, has a population of 82 million but its birthrate is one of the lowest in Europe, clocking in at an average of 1.4 children - the EU average is 1.5 children - with around 30 percent of working women in Germany being childless. On top of this, women in Germany often have to choose between work and having children, a choice that comes about as much as from the lack of childcare facilities as from social mores with women often expected to stay at home and mind children.
Recently, Berlin has pushed family policy up the political agenda encouraging German women to have children. The current family minister Ursula von der Leyen, who has seven children herself, last year tabled proposals to improve the situation including tax breaks, more widespread childcare facilities and encouraging paternity leave. However, it is likely to take some time before these are translated into demographic effect with France last year seeing around 831,000 births compared to Germany's 675,000.