Referendum stelt EU-diplomatiek in Moldavië op de proef (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The breakaway republic of Transdniestria in Moldova will on Sunday (17 September) vote in a referendum on joining Russia, in a potentially damaging blow to EU diplomacy in the post-Soviet region.

"Do you support the course of independence for the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic and the subsequent free joining of Transdniestria to the Russian Federation?" the form will ask the 700,000 ethnic-Moldovan people living on the east side of the Dniester river.

Dubbed illegitimate by the EU, Moldova and Ukraine, the referendum is expected to bring in a 90 percent "yes" - partly due to lack of free and fair voting conditions in Igor Smirnov's Transdniestria and partly due to the unappealing situation on the west side of the Dniester.

"GDP per capita [in Moldova] is on a par with Sudan's. The government, headed by Vladimir Voronin has shown little will to root out corruption," an August report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) said, citing Moldovan opposition MP Oleg Serebrian who called his home "a failed state."

Chisinau believes the Sunday vote will pass with little or no impact, due to the intensified involvement of the EU and US in local conflict resolution schemes - the EU currently has 50 border monitors stationed in Ukraine who are helping to put economic pressure on Mr Smirnov's smuggling empire.

"Now, the situation is more safe than if we compare with other periods of time, first of all due to the appearance of new EU projects," Moldova's ambassador to Brussels, Eugen Carpov told EUobserver this week. "The EU is becoming more and more involved in this process."

He added that the European Commission is set to give trade breaks to Moldovan wine and farm goods in the new year, in a bid to boost economic conditions and to give Transdniestrian firms an incentive to register in Chisinau, thus benefiting from tariff-free EU trade.

Rough neighbourhood

But an OSCE contact stationed in Chisinau warned that "the referendum certainly does nothing to advance the settlement process," adding that "tense situations" in Transdniestria have "the potential to escalate into locally-confined but violent incidents."

In July, a bomb blast in Tiraspol that killed eight people was initially blamed on Moldovan secret agents, but later linked to rival criminal gangs.

On top of the long-standing tension, Russian president Vladimir Putin's new policy of linking Transdniestria to Kosovo and Montenegro - which gained independence via a referendum in May - could give the Tiraspol vote more weight.

Russia has not ruled out sending election monitors for Sunday's event, while Russian parliament deputy head Sergei Baburin two weeks ago said "this year Transdniestria has a chance of gaining independence."

Raising the stakes

The likely accession of Romania into the EU in January will make Moldova a direct EU border state, raising the stakes in Europe's drive to build functional, modern democracies on the edge of the bloc.

The ICG report asks Brussels to extend the mandate of the EU border monitoring mission for several years, station its Moldova envoy - Adriaan Jacobovits de Szeged - in Chisinau permanently, boost aid and step up information campaigns for Transdniestrian students.

"This [greater engagement in Moldova] is also in the interest of Europe," Chisinau's Mr Carpov stated. "Romania joining the EU will for sure change the attitude of the EU concerning the situation in its neighbourhood."