Aftellen naar het Spaans referendum van zondag is begonnen (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Spanish voters are preparing to go to the polls for the EU's first referendum on the European Constitution - an event that will kick off a tough 18-month ratification battle with nine countries expected to follow in Spain's footsteps.

With polls showing around 80 percent of Spaniards in favour of the Constitution, the government's biggest fear is that the turnout on Sunday (20 February) will be embarrassingly low.

A very low turnout would be a blow to Socialist Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and could prompt calls for a re-run.

But it will not be for want of trying on Madrid's part. It has showered the population with copies of the 465-article document, had Big Brother contestants discussing it and handed out a 'referendum' drink.

The government has also been telling Spain how much it has benefited from Europe via the millions of euro it has obtained in regional aid handouts.

Influence

Spain's result is set to have an influence on other countries - such as France and the Netherlands, both of which are set to have referendums in June (although the Dutch referendum may be in autumn).

It is also likely to be one of the least bloody battles with more eurosceptic states such as the UK, Denmark and Poland still to come.

The main parties in Spain - the Socialists and the centre-right people's party - are in favour of the document. It is opposed by only the Catalan Republican Left and the United Left party.

Three countries - Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia - have already ratified the text via their parliaments.

There is no clear answer as to what will happen if a member state says no to the Constitution, which introduces a foreign minister; a permanent chair of the European Council; more majority voting in justice and home affairs and significantly more power to the European Parliament.

A no vote

The political outcome is likely to depend on whether it is a large or small member state; whether it is a founding EU member state and whether it is seen as a traditionally eurosceptic state.

As for the European Constitution itself, which was formally signed in October last year, it leaves it up to member states to decide.

"If, two years after signature of the Treaty establishing the constitution, four fifths of the member states have ratified it and one or more member states have encountered difficulties in proceeding with ratification, the matter shall be referred to the European Council".