Portugese socialisten steven af op overwinning in parlementsverkiezingen - referendum voorzien voor 2006 (en)

EUOBSERVER / LISBON - Portugal is heading for early general elections on Sunday (20 February), as a result of President Jorge Sampaio's decision to call a poll last November.

After a short yet intense media campaign, the prospects of the current centre-right coalition remaining in power are dimming by the day.

Current prime minister and head of the Social Democratic Party, Pedro Santana Lopes, the former mayor of Lisbon who took the helm after José Manuel Barroso's i departure to head the European Commission in September, is losing badly to opposition leader, Socialist José Sócrates.

The three latest polls have shown the same scenarios: Sócrates winning with 45% or 46%, Santana lagging behind with 27% to 31% and his coalition partner, the Popular Party, with 6% to 8%. Yet the number of undecided voters, which last week was reported to be as high as one third of the 8.8 million registered voters, is feeding speculation that there may be alternative scenarios.

One rumour spreading, is that the socialists have a "secret agreement" with the Left Block, a left-wing party, to share power in a coalition government if an absolute majority is not achieved at the ballots.

The leader of the Left Block, Francisco Louça, flirted with this possibility in a televised debate on Wednesday, if a compromise on "concrete policies" is reached between the two parties.

"Our goal is to achieve absolute majority and we will fight for it", said Mr Sócrates, in the same debate. The socialist has declined to comment on having a "plan B" up his sleeve, but dismissed any coalition with a right wing party.

Mr Santana, who himself accused Sócrates of "making a deal" with the left, downplayed the polls, claiming he will win. "I have always won elections despite the polls", he said.

Together, the Portuguese Socialist and Social Democrat parties currently hold 80% of the Parliament's seats. Both leaders are described as telegenic and media-savvy.

The three other parties in the hemicycle are the Popular Party, the Communist party and the Left Block.

EU affairs out of the campaign

Campaign rhetoric and Portuguese media have marginalised EU-related issues such as the European Constitution Referendum.

Still, in a two-day tour over European capitals last month, Mr Sócrates met German chancellor Gerard Schroeder and Spanish premier José Rodriguez Zapatero to discuss EU affairs.

Concerning the EU Referendum, Mr Socrates said that, due to constitutional difficulties and against his wishes, it will be "very hard" to hold it before 2006. Current Prime Minister Santana Lopes foresees a referendum at the end of 2006, depending on a national constitutional revision.

Portugal was supposed to be the first EU country to hold an EU constitution referendum, before political instability prompted President Sampaio to call for early general elections.