Prognose: centrum-rechts komt sterk uit verkiezingen EP (en)
Auteur: Honor Mahony
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The centre-right is set to dominate again in the European Parliament after elections in June, a new report predicts.
Based on the premise that parties in government will do badly and that large parties in opposition will do well, the study for public affairs company Burson-Marsteller predicts that while the centre-right may make a loss in several smaller member states, it will more than make up for it in Germany, Poland and the UK.
The centre-right EPP-ED, which is currently the biggest group in the European Parliament, is expected to get 285 (39%) seats in the 732-seat assembly.
The socialists are predicted to come in with 217 (30%) seats and the liberals with 73 (10%) - which is exactly the order of the three main groups in the parliament today.
However, the study, carried out by Professor Simon Hix of the London School of Economics and Professor Michael Marsh of Trinity College, also predicts some important changes.
Liberals tipping the balance
The eurosceptic EDD group is "unlikely to secure enough MEPs to form a group" and there "may be as many as 50 non-attached MEPs".
Also, if the votes fall the way the report predicts, the liberals will play a pivotal role in EU legislation, meaning they could side with the socialists on environmental issues and with the conservatives on economic issues.
If the liberals form an alliance with the centre-right, they would have over 50 percent of the seats in the parliament so they could apply some interesting political leverage when the Parliament chooses top positions in the EU such as the presidents of the European Commission and the Parliament.
Far-right
Another important outcome of the elections may be that MEPs from the far-right form a group together - if they manage to overcome their disagreements.
This could encompass far-right parties from Austria, Belgium, France, Italy, Slovakia and Poland.
If they get enough seats, they would even be entitled to chair a committee in the parliament which could really put the cat among the pigeons in the other groups in the parliament.
Turnout timebomb
The study, which is based on turnouts in previous European and national elections, does not deal specifically with possible voter turnout between 10-13 June.
According to Professor Hix, the "headline figures may go up slightly" because turnout in the new member states is expected to be higher.
But turnout in the current EU fifteen member states is likely to sink even further, he admitted.
It is a "turnout timebomb and we don't really know why".