Duits rapport: Turkije niet klaar voor toetreding (en)

While the question of Turkish EU membership is expected to become a major issue in the European Parliament election campaign in Germany, a new German report says that Turkey is far from being politically ready to join the EU.

A study published on Monday (1 March) by the Osteuropa-Institut, a Munich-based research institute, says it is "not very likely" that Ankara will meet the European Union's democratic and human rights criteria before the end of this year.

Next December, the EU member states are set to decide whether accession negotiations with Turkey will be opened.

Technically, Ankara needs to fully achieve the political criteria before it can enter membership talks.

The European Commission will publish a crucial assessment on the issue next autumn.

The Munich institute says that although "remarkable efforts" towards political reform have been made by Turkish governments in the last few years, reforms remain essentially bound to the formal legal sphere.

However, the practical effect of the reforms remains limited, the report states, "Despite formal judicial progress, citizens' rights are not yet fully guaranteed".

Among other issues, the report mentions the practice of torture and the limited freedom of speech and religion as examples of continuing violation of human rights in the country. The Munich researchers conclude that Turkey will need "considerable time" to meet the EU's political criteria.

14 billion euro price tag

The study by the think-tank is set to be used by German and other opponents of the Turkish bid to enter the EU, as it also predicts that Turkish membership could cost the Union up to 14 billion euro a year.

In this scenario, based on the assumption that current EU agricultural and other funding policies remain unchanged, Germany alone would have to contribute 2.5 billion euro to each year.

The report further predicts "considerable migration pressure" of Turks to Germany if Turkey joins the EU. The "migration potential" is estimated between 0.5 and 4.4 million people.

Moreover, the paper projects a major shift of power within the EU.

Not only would Turkey become the second largest EU member state, having an influence "similar to that of Germany", but the balance of power would also largely favour the poorer EU countries.

In the event of Turkish accession, 15 countries, accounting for only 9% of the wealth [GDP] of the EU, would together hold 41% of the European Parliament seats and 43% of the votes in the European Council.