[autom.vertaling] [ COMMENTAAR ]: de betekenis van Blocher (en)

The recent electoral success in Switzerland of the SVP, led by the multi-millionaire businessman Christoph Blocher may seem of little consequence in the political affairs of Europe as a whole.

But, seen in the light of electoral successes of the right in other countries, Blocher's victory should set the alarm bells sounding.

In Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway and Portugal, the political right has recently prospered by preaching a mixture of extreme populism and xenophobia, in some cases of an openly fascist hue.

How does one explain this shift?

The new right is not just anti-immigrant but broadly neo-liberal

Clearly, there is no single explanation. There is no simple correlation between the rightward shift and, say, national income decline or aggregate unemployment (eg - Switzerland is rich and has low unemployment).

The new European right is heterogeneous: Pim Fortynn's LPF in the Netherlands and Italy's Lega Nord have distanced themselves from Le Pen's Front Nationale in France and Haider's FPO in Austria. Populist parties draw upon a spectrum of voters, and many of their supporters would find the term 'fascist' repugnant. So too did the supporters of Mrs Thatcher in Britain two decades ago.

The parties of the new right share certain broadly similar features. All are fiercely anti-immigrant; in general such parties favour minimalist government, severe cuts (if not outright abolition) of welfare expenditure while opposing the supra-national institutions of the EU.

Their support appears to be drawn predominantly, though not exclusively, from sections of the working-and lower-middle classes whose prospects of secure employment and upward mobility appear increasingly at risk. This is particularly true in rural areas, in regions where industry has declined precipitously and amongst less educated and unemployed youth.

Sclerotic political parties

While social marginalisation is part of the explanation, it is far from the whole story.

A further explanation is what might loosely be described as a certain malaise about traditional political parties. Undoubtedly, some of the supporters of the new right are protesting against what they perceive as the sclerotic nature of the traditional parties of the centre and centre-left.

Take Holland as an example. The rise of the LFP had much to do with near-permanent post-war coalition government comprising the three traditional parties: the VVD (Liberals), CDA (Christian Democrats) and PvdA (Labour). Whether in Holland, Switzerland, Austria or Denmark, traditional parties are perceived by many to have gradually become indistinguishable: the centre-right accepts supra-national Europe, while the social-democratic left increasingly accepts a neo-liberal pruning of the welfare state in the name of sound finance.

Europeans view their future as less secure

A further element, important to understanding the rightwing backlash, is that Europeans perceive their future as increasingly less secure. Detailed surveys of support for Le Pen's 2002 first-round victory revealed a large majority of voters citing their main concern as 'insecurity' while 'immigration' came far behind. 'Insecurity' is one of those terms that is difficult to define; nevertheless, it describes a recognisable social pathology of known causes.

For example, UK aggregate unemployment may be low, but what lies beneath this statistic is the near collapse in the past 20 years of male industrial unemployment, the rise of the casual service sector 'McJobs', and the growing social division between school dropouts and those who have access to (increasingly privatised) higher education.

Not just in the UK, but also in Europe as a whole we are beginning to see a disaffected and rootless underclass and a growingly fearful middle class. It is but a short step from disaffection and fear to demonising immigrants and asylum seekers.

The political class must challenge xenophobia

Finally, there is an ideological factor. Unlike settler societies such as Australia and the USA, Europe lacks an ideology of assimilation. 'Send me your poor' says the Statue of Liberty in New York, with the concomitant dream of assimilation and upward mobility. Europe, by contrast, has traditionally exported its poor. Where exceptionally Europe has admitted them they have been treated as "gastarbeiters". In the 21st century where civil war and starvation sweep whole continents and ecological upheaval threatens, Europe will need to take in its fair share of permanent political and economic migrants and accept that the benefits of doing so, greatly outweigh the burdens.

It is time for our political class to face up to the challenge of immigration and take the lead in denouncing xenophobia.

That is the lesson of Blocher's victory.

The author is Professor of Economics at ISS in the Hague