EU sancties tegen Oekraïne onwaarschijnlijk (en)

BRUSSELS - The EU is unlikely to impose sanctions on Ukraine, amid confusion on who ordered police violence.

Opposition leaders at a mass rally in Kiev on Sunday (1 December) called for the EU to punish President Viktor Yanukovych i for a police crackdown on Saturday.

They also called for a general strike and for snap elections.

One eyewitness in Kiev told EUobserver on Sunday there are "well in excess of 100,000, maybe more than 200,000" people at the pro-EU demo.

Some Polish VIPs - including former PM Jaroslaw Kaczynski and former European Parliament chief Jerzy Buzek i - joined the event.

It began peacefully.

But a group of demonstrators smashed windows at Kiev city hall at around 2pm local time.

Others clashed with police outside a presidential building a couple of hours later.

Meanwhile, the crackdown on Saturday came a few hours after Yanukovych told EU leaders in Vilnius he will not sign an EU treaty for now.

So-called Berkut riot police at around 4am attacked a crowd of 10,000 pro-EU protesters in Kiev city centre.

TV footage shows them lashing young women with rubber batons and punching and kicking people on the ground.

The EU and the US condemned the incident.

"The unjustified use of force goes against the principles to which all participants of the Vilnius summit, including the President of Ukraine, yesterday reaffirmed their adherence," the EU foreign service and the European Commission said.

EU and US ambassadors also met with Ukraine's interior minister to ask what happened.

He said the police took action because the crowd was blocking the erection of a big Christmas tree and throwing bottles.

But Yanukovych himself and his Prime Minister, Mykola Azarov, distanced themselves from the attack.

They said in separate statements they are "outraged."

They also ordered a criminal investigation into alleged abuse of office by the people who gave the order.

For his part, Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt said their reaction looks like a charade.

"Interesting sign that Ukraine PM Azarov condemns police violence. But orders for crackdown are most likely to have come from his President," he tweeted on Saturday.

One EU diplomat said EU countries could impose "smart sanctions" if police brutality gets worse.

He noted that individual EU states could quietly freeze the foreign bank accounts of Yanukovych supporters to put pressure on him to stop.

But with Russia keen for Ukraine not to take the EU path, others believe sanctions would play into its hands by isolating the Ukrainian leader.

Belarus II?

"I don't think there will be any sanctions. Nobody wants Ukraine to turn into another Belarus," an EU source told this website on Sunday, referring to President Alexander Lukashenko's regime, which is peppered by EU bans and freezes, but which shows no sign of change.

"The Belarus example has taught us that sanctions don't work," another EU contact said.

Diplomats noted the pro-EU rallies have been infiltrated by paid-for "agents provocateurs" to sow confusion.

EU institutions also suspect the Berkut order came from mid-level police chiefs loyal to a pro-Russian faction in Yanukovych's inner circle.

Meanwhile, diplomats voiced amazement at the size of Sunday's protests.

They noted that orthodox priests have come out in support of demonstrators, in an unusual development.

One EU contact said it shows Yanukovych will find it hard to quash opposition by force even if he tries.

"You can see from his reaction that he does not feel fully in control of the country. In a place such as Belarus, when police go in to crack heads, Lukashenko always backs them, even if they go too far," the source said.