Interview Clingendael: Een Bulgaars perspectief op 100% Unie (en)

Philip Gounev is senior analyst at the Centre for the Study of Democracy in Bulgaria

DEN HAAG - The case of Bulgaria shows that post-accession conditionality is not very successful for both the EU and the country in question. Five years after joining the EU Bulgaria still doesn't comply with the six EU benchmarks on the fights against corruption and organized crime. Philip Gounev, senior analyst at the Centre for the Study of Democracy, explains why it is so hard for Bulgaria to comply with the 100% standard set out in the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism.

What do you think of the 100% Union? Do you think the EU uses double standards for candidate states and non-candidate states?

"I like to think that the EU has no standard at all. For me it is really not clear what the 100% union should look like. Bulgaria, and also Romania, is monitored by the European Commission under the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM) for five years now. On a bi-annual basis, the Commission monitors progress in the fight against corruption and organized crime. It checks which institutional or operational changes are needed to fulfill the EU demands. Progress in achieving the six benchmarks which the EU has set for Bulgaria is slow, but there have definitely been some achievements in the past five years. Still, the end goal is unclear and this makes the EU a moving target. It seems as if new goals and tougher standards are added every year as the Commission digs deeper into the problems that Bulgaria is facing. So, there is no final goal or 100% standard."

What are the main problems for Bulgaria in the fight against corruption and organized crime?

"There are several fundamental obstacles in the fight against corruption and organized crime. First of all, Bulgaria is a poor country and lacks the necessary financial means to implement all the reforms. Secondly, the relevant actors do not have the competence or the capacity to effectively tackle the issues at hand. State institutions in Bulgaria are deeply politicized, which prevents them from being effective in fighting corruption. Thirdly, there is small group of influential people who have a deeply entrenched economic interest to prevent a fundamental change. Because of these reasons, meeting the EU benchmarks on the fight against corruption and organized crime is not only about the technical requirements which are listed in the CVM.  It requires a deeper fundamental restructuring and reform process.

Maybe I am a cynic, but I am not very optimistic that the CVM - even if it continues indefinitely - will change something on a fundamental level. For example, one weak point of the CVM is that it lacks clear goals for state institutions like the anti-corruption agency of the judiciary on what they have to achieve or how they can become more effective or politically independent. Right now, the judiciary is not independent at all, but an extension of government power. Allowing the judiciary to become more independent would be a high risk for the political leaders, because the judicial system might be captured by political opponents and corrupted business men with different economic interests. Clearly, that would undermine the power of the current government. The Commission is overly focused in pressuring the government to improve the judicial system, while it is much more difficult to regulate the independence of the judiciary."

The Dutch have singlehandedly postponed Bulgaria's accession to Schengen because they are unsatisfied with the progress in the fight against corruption and organized crime. Do you think Bulgaria is ready to join Schengen?

"The CVM and accession to Schengen are different things and should not be related as the Dutch try to do. For a while now, Bulgaria complies with all the technical requirements for Schengen, as is also stated by the Commission in the CVM reports. Yet, according to the Dutch government Bulgaria cannot join unless it improves its track record on corruption and organized crime. In their view, the accession of Bulgaria to Schengen will harm the interests of the EU and the Dutch people. In my opinion, it is exactly the opposite.

It would help the EU if Bulgaria becomes a member of the passport-free travel zone, because it would relieve Greece from the migration pressure it is facing at its Eastern borders with Turkey. Part of the migration flow will shift towards Bulgaria after it becomes a Schengen member. This is not because the Bulgarian border is easier to cross or is more prone to corruption - quite the opposite. Yet, corruption on land borders is an issue everywhere and will probably remain a problem for a long time. In Bulgaria the political interest in fighting border corruption is high and we have a very strong investigative body to tackle border related corruption."

But as I understood, you want to postpone Schengen accession of Bulgaria?

"At this point, it is not in the interest of Bulgaria to join Schengen. If we become a member of Schengen right now, Bulgaria will receive greater migration flows and face greater corruption pressures from criminals who try to smuggle immigrants in the EU. Many law enforcement officials in Bulgaria share my opinion and think that it is better to stay outside Schengen otherwise we risk taking over part of the burden of Greece."