Europese verkiezingen: peilingen in mei (en)

European citizens seem to be mobilising for the 4-7 June European elections, says a TNS Opinion survey commissioned by the European Parliament. The numbers saying that they plan to vote is clearly up on previous surveys, even though doubts remain as to whether they will in fact do so. Interest in the elections also seems stronger. Unemployment and the economy still top the list of Europeans' concerns.

The poll points to a 49% turnout (fieldwork 4-15 May), up from 34% in the previous Eurobarometer survey (January and February). 43% of respondents said they were certain to vote and a further 6% said they were very likely to do so. 12% seem certain not to vote, down from 19% at the start of the year.

This survey does not provide a firm forecast of the 4-7 June election results. Its findings suggest that the number of citizens planning to vote is growing, but there is no guarantee that the turnout rate will be equivalent to that of 2004.

Greater interest

The May poll found that 53% of Europeans were interested in the elections, and 46% were not. At the start of the year, 44% were interested and 53% were not.

Unemployment and economic growth top the priority list

As to campaign issues, unemployment is still the top concern for 57% of Europeans, followed by economic growth (45%). Next come insecurity (32%), and the future of pensions (31%), which now come well ahead of inflation, purchasing power, and other broad concerns such as climate change and terrorism.

The "Analytical summary" and "First results" notes on this survey will be available at the line below on 27 May 2009.

Note to editorsThe fieldwork for this pre-election survey was done by TNS opinion for the European Parliament from 4 to 15 May on a representative sample of Member State nationals aged 18 and over (16 and over in Austria). Unlike Eurobarometer surveys, in which most interviews were face-to-face, the TNS Opinion one was done mostly by telephone, with some face-to-face interviews in certain countries. As the majority of questions are the same as in the previous few Eurobarometer surveys, the results are compared. However, differences in methodology must be borne in mind when using such comparisons.