Europese Commissie keurt het plan van Duitsland om zijn begrotingstekort te corrigeren per 2007 goed (en)

The European Commission considers that Germany is on track to correct its excessive deficit by 2007 at the latest, as requested by the Council in March 2006, provided it fully implements the 2006 and 2007 budgets. No further steps are needed at present under the excessive deficit procedure, but further efforts will be necessary beyond 2007 to reach the objective of a balanced budget. The Commission will continue to monitor the situation closely.

" After four years breaching the Stability and Growth Pact, Germany is finally on track to correct its excessive budget deficit. If fully implemented and effective, the comprehensive package of measures adopted since late 2005 would ensure that the deficit falls below the 3% of GDP reference value by 2007. The measures adopted are of a permanent nature, which should ensure that the nominal deficit remains well below 3% beyond 2007. However, on current information, the adjustment in 2008 and after falls short of the structural budgetary improvement that is required by the Council in order to achieve the medium-term objective of a balanced budge ", said Joaquín Almunia, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Following evidence of a general government deficit above the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP in 2002, the Council decided on 21 January 2003 that an excessive deficit existed in Germany and adopted a recommendation under Article 104(7) with a view to bringing the situation to an end.

In 2005, the general government deficit in Germany amounted to 3.3% of GDP, according to data provided by Eurostat. Therefore, on 14 March 2006, the Council decided, based on a recommendation from the Commission, to give notice to Germany, in accordance with Article 104(9) of the Treaty, to take the measures judged necessary in order to remedy the situation of excessive deficit " as rapidly as possible and at the latest by 2007." Specifically, the Council requested that " in 2006 and 2007, Germany shall ensure a cumulative improvement in its cyclically-adjusted balance net of one-off and temporary measures by at least one percentage point." In addition, Germany was invited to " take the necessary measures to ensure that budgetary consolidation towards its medium-term objective of a balanced budget in structural terms is sustained through a reduction in the structural deficit by at least 0.5% of GDP per year after the excessive deficit has been corrected." Finally, Germany was asked to " submit to the Commission, by 14 July 2006 at the latest, a report outlining the measures taken to comply with this Decision.

On 5 July 2006, Germany submitted to the Commission a comprehensive implementation report outlining the budgetary developments and plans in response to the Council decision.

In a Communication to the Council adopted today, the Commission considers that on current information, it appears that Germany has taken action representing adequate progress towards the correction of the excessive deficit within the time limit set by the Council.

Specifically, Germany has adopted a comprehensive package of corrective measures since late 2005, which, if fully implemented and effective, would ensure that the deficit falls below the 3% of GDP reference value by 2007. The reduction in the cyclically-adjusted deficit, excluding one-off and other temporary measures, in cumulative terms in 2006 and 2007 is estimated to be close to that recommended in the Council decision.

The most important measure is the planned increase in Germany's standard VAT rate from 16% to 19% in 2007, though this will be partly offset by the reduction in the overall rate for social contributions. On the expenditure side, the reduction in subsidies and adjustments to the recent labour market reforms are expected to contain expenditure growth. Overall, the measures, while having no impact on consolidation in 2006, should make a contribution equalling about 1% of GDP to consolidation in 2007, compared with the baseline.

As the report submitted by Germany details, the process of passing the consolidation measures into law is well advanced, but a significant proportion of them have yet to enter into force. In addition, rigorous implementation and budgetary execution is essential to address higher-than-expected social transfers.

For the years after the envisaged correction of the excessive deficit, the German authorities recognise that the planned (but not yet fully specified) reform of company taxation, to be implemented in 2008, would lead to revenue shortfalls in the short term, since its beneficial effects are likely to materialise only with a lag. This would postpone the path of structural consolidation.

The Commission will continue to closely monitor budgetary developments in Germany in accordance with the Treaty and in consideration of the reporting requirements for Germany as stipulated in the Council decision according to Article 104(9) of 14 March 2006.

The Commission's communication to the Council is available at:

http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/edp/edpde_en.htm

The following table compares Germany's budgetary targets contained in the implementation report of 5 July 2006 with the updated stability programme of February 2006 and the Commission's services spring economic forecasts of May this year.

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections