"Een verwerping van de EU-grondwet zal leiden tot multipolaire Unie" (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Officially there is no plan B if Britain rejects the European Constitution in its referendum next year, but unofficially other capitals are already sketching out solutions.

A new pamphlet, 'What happens if Britain says no' by Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, suggests there are ten options if Britain says no to the EU Charter - including a second referendum, a re-negotiation of the treaty, and a Franco-German union.

Mr Grant suggests that if the British vote no, then the rest of the EU is unlikely to meekly accept living with the Nice Treaty; but that a second referendum on the document is unlikely "as it does very little to extend the EU's remit into new areas of policy ... so it is hard to see what the British could opt out of".

He believes that it is unlikely that Britain could be forced out of the Union but that countries such as France and Germany would probably react with plans for closer co-operation.

"In Berlin, there are people close to [Chancellor] Schröder who say they already have a plan under wraps - to be unveiled the day after the British vote No".

"Apparently France and Germany would announce their intention to build a closer union that would cover eight or nine policy areas. They would immediately involve Belgium and Luxembourg and then invite other member states to join them".

Mr Grant also notes that among senior officials in the European Commission there is strong support for the idea of a core Europe but says that the legal and political difficulties to establish such a core would be "immense".

The messy but likely solution?

In the event of a British No, Mr Grant himself favours what he calls the messy solution. He says integrationist countries would seek to maintain the momentum towards a political union.

They would try and co-operate in areas both in and outside the treaties and then would try and "make the various initiatives work".

The consequence of all this would be further European integration, some of it involving the whole of the EU, but much of it based on perhaps half a dozen overlapping but distinct small groups.

Some more equal than others

Although the pamphlet has concentrated on Britain, the suggested consequences can be used as a political map for any of the other member states - it just depends which one.

A number of factors come into play, including whether the member state is large or small; a founding state; or considered an enthusiastic member of the EU.

A No by France - as a founding member and driving force in the EU - would make it almost impossible to resurrect the document, according to Mr Grant.

But a No by Poland - also a large country - would not necessarily kill the treaty off because Warsaw "has made a few enemies" since joining.

A no by Ireland, Denmark or the Czech Republic, on the other hand, would probably result in the Constitution being put once more to the vote.

In any case, a No against the Constitution is unlikely to result in the status quo for the European Union - and it is large countries that are set to dictate what happens afterwards.