"Ready for a more fragile world? Europe's Role in Responding to Crisis and Conflict"

European Commission

[Check Against Delivery]

Kristalina GEORGIEVA

EU Commissioner for international cooperation, humanitarian aid and crisis response

"Ready for a more fragile world? Europe's Role in Responding to Crisis and Conflict"

Symposium on Governance in Europe Hertie School of Governance

Berlin, 27 May 2014

Introduction

Thank you very much for your kind invitation. It is a pleasure to be with you, debating "Governance in Europe" here in the heart of Berlin. The timing of your symposium could not have been more astute, a few days after the EP elections.

You have asked me to speak on Europe in the world. And I can say one thing upfront: the expectations from the rest of the world as to Europe's role are likely to get bigger, not smaller. And Europe's extended neighbourhood is likely to see more instability, and more risk. The obvious question is: are we up to it?

I want to offer some thoughts from my very specific perspective as Commissioner for humanitarian aid and crisis response. The perspective of the humanitarian and first responder is inevitably partial. But while the humanitarians do not themselves "do" foreign policy, or security, or development, they tend to have a pretty clear perception of when things go right - and when they go wrong. For the simple reasons that the humanitarians are the first ones to have to pick up the pieces when things go wrong. As in Syria. Or in South Sudan. So humanitarians are rather like "mine canaries" - they are the first to feel the heat when things go wrong.

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  The context: a world of ever greater fragility

First, some good news. The world as a whole is getting richer. World GDP now stands at more than US$ 70 trillion. But let me go straight on to the bad news. The wider neighbourhood in which we live, and which impacts directly on Europe, is getting more dangerous. More unpredictable.

What we are seeing is a much more fragile world. In which natural disaster risk and conflict are increasingly overlaid. And where the big trends of climate change and population growth are compounded by extremism.

Let's look at some of the underlying trends:

Climate change. We are only just starting to see the reality of climate change in Europe - but in places like the Horn of Africa or the Sahel, climate change is a matter of life and death, right now. With more drought, more unpredictable rainfall patterns, and a striking increase in the frequency of big food crises. The latest IPCC findings on the likely impact of climate change on extreme weather events are without any ambiguity.

Population growth: by 2050, the world's population is likely to rise to 9.1 bn.

An upward trend in natural disasters: The number of natural disasters has gone up and up and up in recent decades. And the more people you have, the more densely populated particular regions become, the more deadly disasters will be. Even in Europe, some 100,000 people have died in natural disasters over the past decade.

The best illustration of where these trends are hitting hard: the Sahel. A region hit by three big drivers of fragility at once: climate change; population growth; and extremism. Look at the demographic trends for the Sahel: many Sahel countries will see their population double in 20 years. With absolutely no prospect for a similar increase in food production or wealth. This is a recipe for trouble.

And now the world as a whole is seeing a resurgence in armed conflict. You see that, horribly, in the conflict in Syria - where no end to suffering is in sight. And where neighbouring countries like Lebanon are at serious risk. But you also see this trend in the conflict statistics: after a period in the 1990s where the number of highly violent conflicts dropped dramatically, the number of wars is going up significantly.

We humanitarians - the "mine canaries" - certainly see the impact of this resurgence of conflict. There are now 33.3 million conflict-related IDPs worldwide - a record figure for the second year in a row. And earlier this month, the International Committee of the Red Cross published its Annual Report for 2013. It has a very sobering message - we are seeing a comeback of armed conflict.

Now, you might say - none of this is relevant to the big three crises we are facing right now - South Sudan; CAR; Syria. These are inherently 'political' conflicts. Yes, they are - but they are overlaid with, and intersect with, the long-term drivers of fragility.

Look at the neighbourhood around CAR and South Sudan - where what used to be very local conflicts are now regional crises, impacting on countries that are also directly affected by the chronic Sahel crisis: Cameroon; Sudan; Chad. I was in Cameroon earlier this month - and what I saw is a country impacted both by Boko Haram in its far North, and by a massive influx of CAR refugees in the East. In fact we now face a serious risk of a belt of crisis stretching all the way across the African continent. And where a young and growing population with few economic prospects offers an enticing recruitment pool for extremists.

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  What can Europe do - and why does it matter?

First of all, before we come to why Europe matters, let's be clear about one thing: these long-term trends matter for Europe. Of course they matter to me as a humanitarian, because more fragility means more conflict, and more conflict means more people in desperate need of our help. But these trends also matter because we are talking about Europe's neighbourhood. They matter because "trouble travels". They matter because our own security may ultimately be at stake when we allow entire regions to fall into chronic crisis.

So - what can Europe do, faced with this more crisis-prone world?

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  The immediate response

I, for one, disagree with the saying about Europe being "a payer but not a player".

Let me start with the easy part - the part I know best, as humanitarian aid and crisis response Commissioner. When it comes to responding quickly to crises, we have all the tools - and we use them, and use them well. Last week, I was in Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia to see the terrible damage caused by the floods, and to see how Europe is helping. And Europe certainly is helping: the EU civil protection mechanism, has been in full swing - no fewer than 22 EU Member States have been providing flood relief in the Balkans, drawing on the facilitation role we offer at EU level through our Emergency Relief Coordination Centre. With around 500 European rescue workers, from Member States like Germany, and from the EU institutions, working hard to help people hit by the floods. A clear illustration of how European solidarity matters - and how it matters in our immediate neighbourhood.

Further afield, too, we tend to be among the first to respond - and sometimes, we are the only ones. In the Central African Republic, the EU has been providing humanitarian aid for more than a decade - since long before CAR started hitting the headlines last year. We have long been the only donor with humanitarian experts permanently based in Bangui. And when the crisis reached the appalling levels of violence we have seen from last December onwards, we were able not only to step up our funding, but also to help with hands-on, direct assistance - organizing relief flights from Europe, and putting in place an air bridge between Cameroon and CAR, using the EU's own humanitarian air service, ECHO Flight.

Why does this matter? And why did the EU matter in CAR? Because having a presence on the ground enabled us to pick up the signals when things started to go bad - and to sound the alarm. It has also enabled us to help our Member States - sharing information and assessments, offering a foothold on the ground. And why does it make sense for the EU to be engaged in a crisis like CAR? Well, not least because in a crisis like this, not every EU Member State will have its own staff on the ground. Where we act together, we can have a much wider reach, collectively.

But it is not only in the forgotten crises that the EU seeks to make a difference. Collectively, together with our Member States like Germany, the EU is the largest humanitarian donor in the world. The Commission alone has a humanitarian budget of around € 1.3 bn a year. That allows us to make a real impact also in the big crises - like Syria. Where we have worked hard not only to mobilize funding, but also to push hard, together with our Member States and with other partners like the US, to help improve access, and to try and reach as many people as we can.

On policy, too, Europe matters. Take two examples from my own area of responsibility. First, food assistance - where the EU has been leading efforts to move away from dumping surpluses on farmers in developing countries, and using methods like cash and vouchers instead. Second, on resilience - we have been at the forefront of work to build up the coping capacity of people in disaster-prone areas. Because in areas like the Sahel, the same kind of disasters hit the same people again and again.

Now, for the second part of the equation. What is the EU's impact on the political and security side? Let me offer a few modest thoughts from my perspective as humanitarian Commissioner.

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  A less disjointed EU

First of all, an obvious point, but which is worth repeating: the Lisbon Treaty has made a real difference to the EU's external presence. Where do I see the most tangible impact of Lisbon? In the field - with EU Delegations that work hand-in-hand with our Member States' embassies; with EU Heads of Delegations who are now able to represent both the political side of the EU and our huge development portfolio; with the EU now very much seen as a key partner on policy issues - and not just, as may have been the case in the past, a source of funding.

No doubt we as EU need to communicate better on what we do - but when you are in Ouagadougou, or in Bangui, or in Amman, or in Tacloban (where we mobilized a big European relief effort after Typhoon Haiyan), or indeed at the UN General Assembly, questions about "whether the EU matters" seem rather academic.

Secondly, we as EU have tremendous clout when we pull together and use all the tools we have. Last year, together with High Representative Cathy Ashton, the Commission put forward the "Comprehensive Approach" to dealing with crises outside the EU. What it means is that we work together, among the political side, the development side, and the humanitarian side of the EU - to come up with a shared analysis, to make sure what we do is complementary; and to make sure we use all the tools the EU has at its disposal.

The role of the humanitarians in this context is "in, but out": in, because the humanitarians have a seat at the table when looking at the root causes of a crisis, sharing assessments and information. And out, because humanitarian aid is based on people's needs alone, and not directed by political considerations.

For us as the humanitarian part of the EU, the Comprehensive Approach is pretty straightforward - in many crises, the humanitarians are the first to arrive on the scene; in many cases, they will already have been on the scene before a crisis breaks. The added value of "comprehensiveness" in such a context is that you also use diplomacy, and strengthen the emphasis on conflict prevention, and conflict resolution. And in a number of cases, the EU has been able to act decisively on the security front: for example, in Chad and CAR in 2008-2009, with EUFOR Chad; or in Mali since 2013 with the EU Training Mission; or right now in CAR, with EUFOR CAR.

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  But: we need to engage more upstream to prevent conflict

Finally - I do want to leave with you one wish for how all of us - not just the EU - could further improve our game over the next five years. Collectively, we all need to get much better at anticipating crisis. Not just reacting when you have a million refugees and a food crisis around the corner. CAR has been a sobering example: the signs of a major religious and ethnic conflict were there as of last summer. But it took a long time - and the actual start of a ferocious wave of ethnic cleansing - to shake the wider international community into decisive action.

Or take the case of South Sudan - where the writing has been on the wall since long before last December. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, this is easy to say. But all too often we believe what we want to believe - not what the signs on the ground are telling us. And sometimes it is worth listening to those humanitarian "mine canaries".

We also need to improve our "staying power": having a real impact in a crisis setting requires a long-term investment. There are no quick solutions. And we need to get used to dealing with multiple crises on a massive scale - Syria, CAR, South Sudan. These are massive challenges - but we have to face them.

Thank you very much.