Eindfase in Grondwet-onderhandelingen: Polen is de "blinde vlek" (en)

Three weeks ahead of the landmark EU summit expected to adopt the new European Constitution, Poland remains one of the few uncertain factors in the game.

"I am confident we will find a solution in June that everybody finds fair and acceptable and which will also take into account the importance and the weight of Poland", the German chancellor Gerhard Schröder said in an attempt to secure Polish support for the final deal.

Visiting Warsaw yesterday (26 May) Mr Schröder held meetings with the Polish president Aleksander Kwasniewski and interim Prime Minister Marek Belka.

Mr Schröder said it was up to all EU members - including Poland - to work towards the June deadline.

"The German government is prepared to discuss specific arrangements... but we cannot allow ourselves a fiasco in June", he said when addressing a forum in Warsaw, reported Deutsche Welle.

Ratification problems

Current Polish leaders have signalled they agree to the principle of double majority voting in European Council voting, however there is still no agreement on the percentage of countries and people needed to form the majority of votes.

The draft Constitution would allow the EU laws to pass with the support of 50 percent of member states representing 60 percent of the total population.

As it stands now, Poland and Spain each have 27 votes in the Council of Ministers while the EU's four heavyweights Britain, France, Germany and Italy have 29 votes each.

The most difficult part of the Constitution negotiations might however be to get any deal brokered at the June EU summit, ratified in the 25 member states.

This could be a difficult yearlong process including public referenda in a number of EU states, including the UK.

In Poland the ratification is far from certain as it requires support in the national parliament or - what is more likely - approval by the public in a referendum.

The country may hold general elections in early August, which has already thrown into question the political legitimacy of the current government to negotiate on behalf of its people.

A second vote of confidence in the interim Prime Minister Marek Belka may take place before the June EU summit takes place on 17-18 June.

Poland is the uncertain factor

The European elections on 13 June is another important test of the Polish governments chances to have a European Constitution accepted back home.

German magazine Spiegel quoted government sources saying: "Poland is the uncertain factor. The uncertainty will last until a few days before the EU summit".

Poland's populist self-defence party, Samoobrona, wants to push for a reworking of its accession treaty with the EU.

The party led by Andrzej Lepper is leading in the polls and wants to push this policy at the European level if they get seats in the European Parliament.